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In Today's Newsletter:
- Round Three recap
- Through R3 Positive EV Results
- Round Four WMPO Positive EV Picks
- UnderPar App Sneak Peek
Round Two Recap 🚀
⛳ Moving Day at TPC Scottsdale saw a legendary name rise to the top. Two-time champion Hideki Matsuyama carded a steady 3-under 68 to take the solo lead at 13-under par. Matsuyama showcased his veteran experience, navigating a crowded leaderboard to put himself in position for a historic third title in the desert.
The chase pack is formidable, with four players sitting just one shot back at 12-under. Nicolai Højgaard and Maverick McNealy provided the fireworks of the day, both firing 6-under 65s to surge into a tie for second alongside Si Woo Kim and 36-hole leader Ryo Hisatsune. Meanwhile, Scottie Scheffler continued his steady climb; after his opening 73, he followed Friday's 65 with a solid 67, sitting five back at 8-under and remaining a dangerous threat for Sunday's finale.
The WM Phoenix Open Round One:
Hideki Matsuyama
Nicolai Højgaard
Maverick McNealy
Tournament data updated: Februay 8, 2025 by UnderPar
Through R3 Positive EV Results 🚀
Daniel Hillier vs. Jesper Svensson
Tournament Matchup (Qatar Masters): This was our model's highest conviction play of the week. Hillier entered the desert in peak form, boasting a 62.7% win probability against Svensson. Our internal metrics suggested Hillier was an even better buy, identifying additional arbitrage in the market. This was a pretty safe play this week. Currently Hillier is 5 strokes up on Svensson through round three of the Qatar Masters.
| PICK | MATCHUP TYPE | WIN % | ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Min Woo Lee vs Koepka | WMPO (Tournament) | WIN | -144 |
| Angel Ayora vs Wallace | Qatar Masters (Tournament) | 56.1% | -128 |
| Matt McCarty vs Koepka | WMPO (Round 1) | WIN | -132 |
| Harris English vs Spieth | WMPO (Round 1) | PUSH | -130 |
| Daniel Hillier vs Reed | Qatar Masters (Round 2) | LOSS | -105 |
| Joakim Lagergren vs Kobori | Qatar Masters (Round 2) | WIN | -130 |
| Marcus Armitage vs Hill | Qatar Masters (Round 2) | WIN | -116 |
| Johannes Veerman vs Kobori | Qatar Masters (Round 3) | PUSH | -124 |
Sunday Model Strategy 🔒
Our Sunday morning simulations have flagged a few Round 4 matchups with notable arbitrage opportunities. We've released the full final-round card below the subscriber break.
