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In Today's Newsletter:

  1. Round Two recap
  2. Through R3 Positive EV Results
  3. Round Three Positive EV Picks
  4. UnderPar App Sneak Peek
Tournament Analysis

Round Two Recap 🚀

⛳ Friday at TPC Scottsdale saw a major shift at the top of the leaderboard as the Japanese stars took over. Ryo Hisatsune fired a spectacular 8-under 63 to reach 11-under for the tournament, taking a one-shot lead over Hideki Matsuyama (-10). Hisatsune’s round was highlighted by an incredible chip-in birdie on the 17th hole after finding the water off the tee.

Meanwhile, World Number One Scottie Scheffler successfully mounted a comeback. After a disappointing opening 73, he carded a 65 on Friday to comfortably make the cut and move into a tie for 11th at 4-under par. Overnight leader Chris Gotterup struggled to find the same magic as his opening round, shooting an even-par 71 to remain at 8-under, where he sits in a tie for third with Pierceson Coody.

The WM Phoenix Open Round One:

Pos
Player
Total
Today
Thru
1
Player 1 Ryo Hisatsune
-11
-8
F
2
Player 2 Hideki Matsuyama
-10
-7
F
T3
Player 3 Chris Gotterup
-8
E
F

Tournament data updated: Februay 7, 2025 by UnderPar

Through R3 Positive EV Results 🚀

FEATURED PICK

Daniel Hillier vs. Jesper Svensson

Tournament Matchup (Qatar Masters): This was our model's highest conviction play of the week. Hillier entered the desert in peak form, boasting a 62.7% win probability against Svensson. Our internal metrics suggested Hillier was an even better buy, identifying additional arbitrage in the market. This was a pretty safe play this week. Currently Hillier is 5 strokes up on Svensson through round three of the Qatar Masters.

Model Matchup Recommendations
PICK MATCHUP TYPE WIN % ODDS
Min Woo Lee vs Koepka WMPO (Tournament) WIN -144
Angel Ayora vs Wallace Qatar Masters (Tournament) 56.1% -128
Matt McCarty vs Koepka WMPO (Round 1) WIN -132
Harris English vs Spieth WMPO (Round 1) PUSH -130
Daniel Hillier vs Reed Qatar Masters (Round 2) LOSS -105
Joakim Lagergren vs Kobori Qatar Masters (Round 2) WIN -130
Marcus Armitage vs Hill Qatar Masters (Round 2) WIN -116
Johannes Veerman vs Kobori Qatar Masters (Round 3) PUSH -124

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