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In Today's Newsletter:
- Round Two recap
- Through R3 Positive EV Results
- Round Three Positive EV Picks
- UnderPar App Sneak Peek
Round Two Recap 🚀
⛳ Friday at TPC Scottsdale saw a major shift at the top of the leaderboard as the Japanese stars took over. Ryo Hisatsune fired a spectacular 8-under 63 to reach 11-under for the tournament, taking a one-shot lead over Hideki Matsuyama (-10). Hisatsune’s round was highlighted by an incredible chip-in birdie on the 17th hole after finding the water off the tee.
Meanwhile, World Number One Scottie Scheffler successfully mounted a comeback. After a disappointing opening 73, he carded a 65 on Friday to comfortably make the cut and move into a tie for 11th at 4-under par. Overnight leader Chris Gotterup struggled to find the same magic as his opening round, shooting an even-par 71 to remain at 8-under, where he sits in a tie for third with Pierceson Coody.
The WM Phoenix Open Round One:
Ryo Hisatsune
Hideki Matsuyama
Chris Gotterup
Tournament data updated: Februay 7, 2025 by UnderPar
Through R3 Positive EV Results 🚀
Daniel Hillier vs. Jesper Svensson
Tournament Matchup (Qatar Masters): This was our model's highest conviction play of the week. Hillier entered the desert in peak form, boasting a 62.7% win probability against Svensson. Our internal metrics suggested Hillier was an even better buy, identifying additional arbitrage in the market. This was a pretty safe play this week. Currently Hillier is 5 strokes up on Svensson through round three of the Qatar Masters.
| PICK | MATCHUP TYPE | WIN % | ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Min Woo Lee vs Koepka | WMPO (Tournament) | WIN | -144 |
| Angel Ayora vs Wallace | Qatar Masters (Tournament) | 56.1% | -128 |
| Matt McCarty vs Koepka | WMPO (Round 1) | WIN | -132 |
| Harris English vs Spieth | WMPO (Round 1) | PUSH | -130 |
| Daniel Hillier vs Reed | Qatar Masters (Round 2) | LOSS | -105 |
| Joakim Lagergren vs Kobori | Qatar Masters (Round 2) | WIN | -130 |
| Marcus Armitage vs Hill | Qatar Masters (Round 2) | WIN | -116 |
| Johannes Veerman vs Kobori | Qatar Masters (Round 3) | PUSH | -124 |
