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In Today's Newsletter:
- Round One recap
- Round Two Positive EV Picks
Round One Recap 🚀
⛳ The 2026 WM Phoenix Open kicked off with fireworks as Chris Gotterup surged to the top of the leaderboard, firing an 8-under 63 to take a two-shot lead. Taking advantage of calm morning conditions, Gotterup carded six birdies and an eagle.Matt Fitzpatrick sits in solo second after shooting 29 on his first 9, then bogeying his last two holes of the day. A crowded leaderboard follows, with Michael Thorbjornsen continuing his hot start to the season at 5-under (66), tied with Nicolai Hojgaard, and Sam Stevens. Meanwhile, the World Number One Scottie Scheffler struggled to find his rhythm, opening with a 2-over 73.
The WM Phoenix Open Round One:
Chris Gotterup
Matt Fitzpatrick
Michael Thorbjornsen
Tournament data updated: Februay 6, 2025 by UnderPar
Round 1 Positive EV Results 🚀
Daniel Hillier vs. Jesper Svensson
Tournament Matchup (Qatar Masters): This was our model's highest conviction play of the week. Hillier entered the desert in peak form, boasting a 62.7% win probability against Svensson. Our internal metrics suggest Hillier is an even better buy, identifying additional arbitrage in the market. This was a pretty safe play this week. Currently Hillier is 7 strokes up on Svensson.
| PICK | MATCHUP TYPE | WIN % | ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Min Woo Lee vs Koepka | WMPO (Tournament) | 59.0% | -144 |
| Matt McCarty vs Koepka | WMPO (Round 1) | WIN | -132 |
| Harris English vs Spieth | WMPO (Round 1) | PUSH | -130 |
| Angel Ayora vs Wallace | Qatar (Tournament) | 56.1% | -128 |
