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Putts UnderPar: Tournament Intelligence from the Truist
Pipeline progress, Truist Championship metrics, and how 100 feet of putts per day won the tournament
Cole Freeman
May 12, 2025
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In this week's newsletter:
- What we are building
- Tournament recap
- Trending player analytics
Tournament Intelligence Pipeline 🕵️♂️
Last week we released our roadmap and we're working hard to bring you more analytics, more visuals, and more predictions. Here's some of what we're hoping to have complete for next week's edition.
Sunday Evening breakdown 🛋️
Yep next week we're moving this edition of the newsletter to Sunday. We wanted to get in a good flow of writing this newsletter making sure we delivered on time, and Monday's we're the easiest time to start. But, it just makes sense to get this out immediately after the end of a tournament.
Post Tournament Data Pipeline 🏆
Get your Sunday evening breakdown of how players scored, what were optimum fantasy picks for the tournament, and strokes gained themes we picked up on during the event.
Data viz framework 📊
We'll be introducing some cool looking and absolutely informative data visuals in the coming weeks. These won't be interactive but trust us, we're working on that too. Let us know in the comments or reach out on our socials to let us know some metrics you would like to see discussed in our newsletters.
Coming Soon - Value Picks 💰
We're developing an algorithm that identifies undervalued players poised for breakout performances. Our system will analyze historical data, current trends, and player specific advantages based on previous play on similar courses. This isn't just about finding cheap DFS options. It's about spotting talent ready to go low. Whether you're building fantasy lineups or want to impress friends with your predictions, our value picks will give you an edge on tournament day.
Recapping the Truist Championship ⛳
The Philly Cricket Club nearly experienced another crazed scoring bonanza like last weeks 31 under clinic put on by Scottie Scheffler. Players went low on day one where we saw a 9 under 61 shot by Keith Mitchell.
Friday and Saturday played a little more difficult where some low scores were posted, but there was only a 5 shot difference between first round scores (-9), and third round scores (-14). Mother Nature crashed the party with gusts approaching 30 mph, even the big names couldn't go that low. This let some players like Matsuyama, who was on the course early, score low (63) to stay in the hunt.
Sepp Straka, one of our picks to perform well from last week, held off the rest of the field to win the Truist at 16 under par. He had a low round of 63 (-7) in the first round and then really just played consistent golf the rest of the week.
Keep scrolling to see how it all shook out:
Truist Championship Final Leaderboard:
Sepp Straka
Justin Thomas
Shane LowryTournament data updated: May 11, 2025 by UnderPar
So How'd they do it 🧐
Stokes gained (SG) tee to green (T2G) and SG Approach (APP) again told the story this week. Straka, Thomas, and Lowry all finished in the top 10 SG APP. With the exception of Straka, they all finished in the top 10 in SG T2G, with Straka finishing 12th in this category. The difference maker for Straka was SG Putt where he finished 2nd in the category. Thomas and Lowry both placed outside the top 25 in SG Putt.
Where it mattered 🎯
Sepp really crushed it where it mattered most, with the flat stick. He ranked in the top 20 each round for SG Putt and finished 2nd overall for the tournament. And when it came down to it, Straka made par on the final hole to win the tournament as Shane Lowry three putted his way to a second place tie with Justin Thomas.
| METRIC | Sepp Straka -16 | Shane Lowry -14 |
|---|---|---|
| SG: PUTTING Strokes gained on the green | +2.17 | +0.13 |
| SG: AROUND GREEN Strokes gained in short game | -0.27 | +0.28 |
| SG: APPROACH Strokes gained on approach shots | +1.13 | +1.60 |
| SG: OFF THE TEE Strokes gained on tee shots | -0.01 | +0.52 |
| SG: TEE TO GREEN Combined T2G performance | +0.85 | +2.40 |
| SG: TOTAL Overall strokes gained | +3.02 | +2.52 |
| FINAL ROUND R4 score | -2 | -3 |
The Flat Stick ⛳
Statistically, Lowry and Thomas both scored better across all aspects of strokes gained categories...Except On SG: Putt. And Straka destroyed them in this category. In fact, Straka lost strokes against the field around the green and off the tee. He just got it done where it mattered most, with the flat stick. Several players finishing in the top 10, including Jacob Bridgeman, Stephan Jaeger, and Cameron Young played average golf, but putted the ball extremely well.
Cool stat ❄️
Straka averaged 101 feet 7 inches in total length of his putts made over the 4 days. This means that the total distance of every putt he sunk, when added together, amounted to more than 100 feet each day. That's more than 25 feet longer than both Thomas and Lowry. Straka didn't crush Lowry or Thomas in terms of number of putts made, but he sure as hell made them from further out.
Picks for PGA Championship 🏆
Setting the scene 🖼️
Quail Hollow is the 3rd longest course in the PGA Tour's annual rotation playing 7,616 yards. Typically home to the Truist Championship, past tournaments have boasted incredibly quick, large, and undulating greens that require precision on approach and careful reads on the putting surface.
Key Stats 📈
Given the length of the course, distance off the tee is going to give players a huge leg up. With plenty of rain forecasted ahead of the tournament, fairways are not going to be rolling out. Cutting down the length required on approach shots will allow for higher lofted irons into some greens, but players who can hit their irons higher will be rewarded in general. While many of the greens are big targets, the firmness and speed will it tough to keep long irons and low trajectory shots on the surface. This will bring scrambling into the equation as well as the importance of three putt avoidance.
Rory McIlroy
Quail Hollow is nicknamed Rory McIlroy Country Club for a reason. He won there last season and has won a total of 4 times (Truist Championship). Rory is one of the best drivers in the game, he is having an incredible season, and his game fits this course well.
Scottie Scheffler
Much like Rory, Scottie doesn't really need much explaining. He is in his prime and looks nearly unstoppable. He took off this past week to prepare following his record-tying performance at the CJ Cup where he secured his 1st win of the season. Scottie leads the PGA Tour in scrambling, has a very strong approach game, and avoids big mistakes.
Bryson DeChambeau
Bryson has been playing lights out on the LIV Tour winning his last event with a T2, T5, 5th, and T10 in the four starts prior. His distance and SG OTT are top in the world and he has a strong short game as well. He was the runner up in the PGA last year to Xander at Valhalla.
John Rahm
Like Bryson, Rahm has had a great season so far. While he has not found his first win this year, his last 5 starts he has finished T7, 4th, T14, T9, and T5. He will need to bring his A-game on the putting green but his distance off the tee and strength around the greens will likely keep him towards the top of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Joaquin Niemann
Niemann is possibly the hottest player in the field this week. He has 3 wins this year and sits a top the LIV standings. I think he the length he has off the tee (5th in distance, 1 behind McIlroy and 12th in SG OTT) and his ball striking will keep him in the mix. His putting is inconsistent and held him back at the Master's, but if he can have an above-average putting week the rest of his game is good enough to compensate.
Keith Mitchell
Keith Mitchell is my sleeper this week. I took Sepp Straka as a sleeper for the Truist and he ended up lifting the trophy. I am not saying I think Mitchell is winning his first major, but I do love where his game is. He drove the ball incredibly all week in Philly and was draining putts left and right in rounds 1-3. He has had 4 top 20 finishes in a row, has the distance off the tee (21st in the world), has a fantastic approach game (16th), and has shown his putter can get hot.