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King Scheffler in the Queen City
Pipeline Progress, PGA Championship Metrics, and Getting Through the Green Mile
Cole Freeman
May 18, 2025
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In this week's newsletter:
- What we are building
- Tournament recap
- Trending player analytics
Tournament Intelligence Pipeline 🕵️♂️
Over the past couple weeks we've been developing some pretty cool data pipelines. They are starting to take shape and we are approaching a point where we can really start to deliver on our analytics. As engineers ourselves this has been a really fun project to work on.
Marrying data engineering, analytics, and Golf has been a truly rewarding experience for Ben and myself. We hope to show that in this newsletter by providing y'all with some of the best analytics out there.
Data viz framework 📊
We're working hard to get our data visuals up and running. You can expect to see some more analytics coming from us soon. Below is just an example, but you can see the quality we are trying to deliver. Let us know some metrics you'd be interested in us covering in our newsletter and socials. Comments on the newsletter are the best way for us to get feedback right now.
Player A BREAKOUT PLAYER shows consistent improvement in his 60-day rolling average over the last 6 tournaments, transforming from below average (-0.5) to well above average (1.1). This crossing of the tour average threshold, followed by sustained improvement, signaled a potential breakthrough performance.
Coming Soon - Value Picks 💰
We're including a value pick this week in our trending player analytics section, but it's just anecdotal for now. We're still working on our pipelines before we can start developing some more intelligent picks based on the data.
We want to make sure we're able to analyze current trends, access historical data, and provide outlooks on current trends for players with the potential to have a breakout performance. We're not just looking to find cheap DFS options, we want to know where the valuable players are and spot the talent as it's on the rise.
Whether you're building fantasy lineups or want to impress friends with your predictions, our value picks will give you an edge on tournament day.
Share with your network 🚀
Recapping the PGA at Quail Hollow ⛳
Quail Hollow always plays long, but turned into a beast on Sunday. The course dried out and players had to deal with faster greens and greens that didn't hold approach shots. While everyone expected the long bombers to have a big advantage this week, the course really favored guys who hit fairways and greens.
At the beginning of the week we saw some more controversy with playing preferred lies and a I'm glad the PGA made them play it down. Yes, it sucks, but it's Golf, play it as it lies.
Scottie again is just playing well where everyone else isn't. He rounded the green mile at 1 over par where the rest of the field averaged 1.128 over par. He played magnificent golf down the stretch.
Keep scrolling to see how it all shook out:
PGA Championship Final Leaderboard:
Scottie Scheffler
Harris English
Bryson DeChambeauTournament data updated: May 18, 2025 by UnderPar
So How'd they do it 🧐
Scheffler and English really got it done by hitting fairways and greens. They both finished 1st and 2nd in SG Tee to Green and 9th and 1st for SG Approach. Just like the CJ Cup Scottie gained strokes everywhere. The only statistic he finished outside the top 10 on this week was SG Putt. He drove the ball well, hit lots of greens, and got up and down. It's no wonder he blew out the field again.
Where it mattered 🎯
Y'all, SG Approach is sticking out out like a soar thumb. Other than Tee to Green the top 5 finishers finished in the top 25 SG Approach. I know it's cliche but this course really favored players who just went out there and hit the fairway then knocked it on the green. DeChambeau is the one top 5 finisher who fell outside the top 25 in the SG Approach category. It was obvious he struggled down the stretch it hit greens.
| METRIC | Scottie Scheffler -11 | Harris English -6 |
|---|---|---|
| SG: PUTTING Strokes gained on the green | +0.66 | +0.20 |
| SG: AROUND GREEN Strokes gained in short game | +1.17 | +0.21 |
| SG: APPROACH Strokes gained on approach shots | +1.27 | +1.99 |
| SG: OFF THE TEE Strokes gained on tee shots | +1.11 | +0.56 |
| SG: TEE TO GREEN Combined T2G performance | +3.55 | +2.76 |
| SG: TOTAL Overall strokes gained | +4.22 | +2.97 |
| FINAL ROUND R4 score | E | -6 |
The Green Mile ⛳
Quail Hollow's final 3 holes can completely make or break a round of golf. The 529, 223, and 494-yard holes total nearly 1,300 yards, all have water in play and are the 3rd, 2nd, and 1st hardest holes by handicap. This year showed us again how difficult this stretch plays as all three holes averaged well over par. Coming down the stretch it was looking like Rahm was going to give Scottie a run for his money, however, Rahm went 5 over through the final three holes giving Scottie a big cushion to play it safe.
The Green Mile - Quail Hollow
| Hole | Par | Rank | Scoring Avg. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | 4 | 3 | 4.327 |
| 17 | 3 | 2 | 3.396 |
| 18 | 4 | 1 | 4.407 |
Cool stat ❄️
Sticking to the theme of The Green Mile, Scottie Scheffler gained 3.56 strokes on the field on the 3-hole stretch. Showing just how difficult this stretch can be, Scottie bested the field despite a double bogey on 16 in round 1 and a bogey on 18 in round 4.
- 16th Hole: -0.71 SG
- 17th Hole: +2.67 SG
- 18th Hole: +1.6 SG
Some Value Picks for Charles Schwab🏆
Setting the scene 🖼️
Colonial Country Club is a fairly narrow golf course but not overly long. I see driving accuracy being a telling stat for next week as well as strokes gained on approach and strokes gained putting.
While I am sure Scottie Scheffler will be the favorite next week back in his home state, here are some less obvious trending players to keep your eyes on.
Harris English
English is coming off of an excellent showing in the PGA after finishing T11 at the Truist. His accuracy is a nice fit for Colonial Country Club and he led the field in SG on approach at the PGA.
JT Poston
JT also had a fantastic tournament this weekend in Charlotte marking his 4th consecutive top 25 finish. Poston played well last year at the Charles Schwab finishing T12 and has the game fit for the course. He showed a strong approach game in Charlotte.
Daniel Berger
Berger is quietly having a great season. Prior to the PGA, he had finished in the top 30 in 9 consecutive tournaments including 2 top 5s. He is accurate off the tee and while not the biggest hitter, Colonial isn't super long. He is also a great ball striker.
Si Woo Kim
I'll be honest, this is partially a vibe pick because Si Woo is just so much fun to watch. That being said, he has started to really turn his game up a notch with a great performance at the PGA this weekend (that hole in one was electric). He is another accurate driver with a strong appraoch game that I think will keep him in the mix in Fort Worth.